Should the rise of China be of concern to the United States?
Many people believe that we are living in a unipolar world with the United
States as the world’s great power. However, a unipolar world opens up the
possibility of instability as other powers rise. With China’s extremely large
population and a rapidly growing economy, it has the potential to alter the
international system. Thus, the United States should be concerned about the
rise of China as it could destroy this unipolar world.
China is
not the wealthiest state of the Northeast Asian states. Despite the fact that
Japan takes that title, China’s rapid economic growth gives it the potential to
become the wealthiest state of Northeast Asia and wealthier than the United
States. Since 1990, China’s GDP growth has been between 8 and 12 percent
(Lecture 13). China’s economic growth can be seen by looking at a picture of
Shanghai in 1990 and then 2010. The growing economy is making China an
important and influential role in the global economy. If China’s economy
continues to grow at this rapid pace, it could become the wealthiest state and
the greatest power of Northeast Asia, which would make it a threat to the
United States.
It is well
known that present-day China does not possess significant military power.
China’s military power is inferior compared to the United States. In a
comparison of states with the highest military expenditure in 2012, the United
States was at 39 percent while China was at 9.5 percent (Lecture 13). However,
it has been forecasted that China’s military spending will increase with time
(Lecture 13). China’s military power could increase with time as long as the
economy continues to grow. A powerful economy is essential to a strong military
presence; the larger China’s economy gets then the stronger its military could
become.
Seeing as
that population size is a building block of military power, China’s enormous
population could also help create a stronger military presence. China now has
more than four times the population size than the United States and is
projected to have three times as many by 2050 (nationalinterest.org). The large
population size of China could give it a significant leg up in military power.
If China can grow its military, the United States should be concerned about it
becoming a great power and altering the international system.
In all, the
United States should be concerned about China’s economic growth. If China’s
economy slows, it cannot become a great power. Thus, the United States should
have an interest in seeing the Chinese economic growth slow. Yet, since China
has shown a strong potential to become a great power over the past decade, the
United States should be concerned about the rise of China if it wishes to
remain the world’s great power.
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204
I thought the post was very well written and came away convinced of your point that the United States should be concerned with the rise of China. However, a counter point that could be made is that eventually the GDP growth rate that has been consistently around 10% for the better part of three decades will level off once China's GDP per capita begins approaching levels experienced in the United States. A growth rate of 10% seems unreasonably optimistic for a state with a GDP per capita of $50000. So, while China may be growing rapidly in the present, how likely is it, given an aging population and rampant problems with pollution, that growth will continue at such an astronomical rate into the future?
ReplyDeleteI disagree with you Louis, China have more natural resources, more cheap labor, more consumers, and more nearby trade partners than U.S. This is why Japan's economy stopped growing, they don't have enough resources nor cheap labor to grow anymore. The only thing China lack is the educated people who knows how to turn that into GDP. China doesn't have social security nor Medicare. Their economy do not have to spend money to take care of them. There are plenty of people in China looking for work in China to fill the age gap, not to mention automated technologies. The reason why U.S.'s GDP exceeded the Europe countries is because once U.S. became modernized the same level as Europe, and U.S. had more land with more resources and labor. It is just simple math that U.S. GDP is larger than individual Europe countries
ReplyDeleteI agree with Mingjie, I almost think that the aging population and problems with pollution can be outweighed by the benefits of China's vast amount of natural resources, cheap labor and large population. These benefits will make it possible that China will continue to grow at such a high rate. Also, it is better for the United States to be concerned about the rise of China earlier in the game rather than later, regardless of whether China's economy continues to grow this fast in the next coming decades. This way the United States can plan ahead for how to combat a possible Chinese world power.
ReplyDeleteWait why do you disagree with me? You agree that China's economy will potentially surpass that of U.S.
DeleteI disagree with you Caroline, because I don't think there is any need to be fearful or wary of China's economic development. Chinese people desires American goods (such as wines, beer, iPhone) just as much as Americans desire Chinese goods(Ralph Lauren and everything that can be found at a Wal-Mart) . Both Chinese and Americans should be fearful that they will lose all those products if war was ever possible between these two great nations.
People were having this conversation about Japan surpassing the United States fifteen to twenty years ago, and their economy hasn't surpassed us. I think China's economy has a chance to surpass America's economy, but I think China will end up having the same result as Japan did.
ReplyDeleteGood points here -- this is a very interesting question that people will be watching closely in the coming years. I think most economists would be very surprised if China passed the US on a per capita basis any time soon, but economists have known to be wrong. From a latent power standpoint, however, China doesn't even really need to come all that close to matching the US on a per capita basis to overtake the US in the aggregate.
ReplyDelete